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Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Mary C. Daly
  • Bart Hobijn

Abstract

Aggregate real wages exhibit less procyclicality than most macroeconomic models predict. We use 35 years of Current Population Survey data to confirm that the puzzling behavior of wages largely owes to changes in the composition of the employed over the business cycle. This composition effect relates to changes in both the number and the relative wage levels of those entering and exiting. The changing gap in wages of entrants and exiters is especially important for the unemployed. A large part of this wage gap is due to differences in average Mincer residuals between entrants and exiters.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2017. "Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 349-352, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:5:p:349-52
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171075
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleksandr Faryna & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera & Andriy Tsapin, 2020. "Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    2. Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad & Thomas Moehrle, 2020. "New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Average Labor Costs in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 966-979, December.
    3. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Lin, 2022. "Female small business owners in China: Discouraged, not discriminated," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2021. "Wage Growth Distribution and Changes over Time: 2001–2018," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(1), pages 76-93, March.
    5. Dean Hyslop & Amy Rice & Hayden Skilling, 2019. "Understanding labour market developments in New Zealand, 1986-2017," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2019/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Stephanie R. Aaronson & Mary C. Daly & William L. Wascher & David W. Wilcox, 2019. "Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 333-404.
    7. Francesco D'Amuri & Salvatore Lattanzio & Benjamin S. Smith, 2023. "The anatomy of labor cost adjustment to demand shocks: Germany and Italy during the Great Recession," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1411, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Grace Weishi Gu & Eswar Prasad, 2018. "New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Labor Costs in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 24266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, uncertainty, and monetary policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 194-207, October.
    10. Dean R Hyslop & Amy Rice, 2019. "Contributions of Employment Change to Annual Wage Growth in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 107-115, March.
    11. Raquel Carrasco & José Ignacio Garcia-Pérez & Juan Francisco Jimeno, 2020. "Worker Flows and Wage Dynamics: Estimating Wage Growth without Composition Effects," Working Papers 20.13, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    12. Jay C. Shambaugh & Michael R. Strain, 2021. "The Recovery from the Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 28-48, May.
    13. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2022. "Wage and unemployment: Evidence from online job vacancy data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 52-70.
    14. Robert-Paul Berben & Ide Kearney & Robert Vermeulen, 2018. "DELFI 2.0, DNB's Macroeconomic Policy Model of the Netherlands," DNB Occasional Studies 1605, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Daniel Monte & Roberto Pinheiro, 2021. "Labor market competition over the business cycle," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1593-1615, October.
    16. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Wage Growth Puzzle and Capacity Utilization," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-31, March.
    18. Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2019. "Wage Growth Distribution and Decline among Individuals: 2001-2017," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Jul 2019.
    19. Guido Bulligan & Elisa Guglielminetti & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Wage growth in the euro area: where do we stand?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 413, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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