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Testing for Super-Exogeneity in the Presence of Common Deterministic Shifts

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  • Hans-Martin Krolzig
  • Juan Toro

Abstract

This paper introduces the concept of common deterministic shifts (CDS). This concept is simple, intuitive and relates to the common structure of shifts or policy interventions. We propose a Reduced Rank technique to investigate the presence of CDS. The proposed testing procedure has standard asymptotics and good small-sample properties. We further link the concept of CDS to that of super-exogeneity. It is shown that CDS tests can be constructed which allow to test for super-exogeneity. The Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the CDS test for super-exogeneity dominates testing procedures proposed in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "Testing for Super-Exogeneity in the Presence of Common Deterministic Shifts," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 41-71.
  • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:67-68:p:41-71
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    Cited by:

    1. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    2. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2008. "Cobreaking of Stock Prices and Contagion," Working Papers 537, Hanken School of Economics.
    3. Schreiber, Sven, 2009. "Explaining shifts in the unemployment rate with productivity slowdowns and accelerations: a co-breaking approach," Kiel Working Papers 1505, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Cobra: A package for co-breaking analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 663-679, October.
    5. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    6. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    8. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Ahlgren, Niklas & Antell, Jan, 2010. "Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 157-166, May.

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