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Une étude empirique des sources des fluctuations économiques dans le cadre d'un modéle à tendances communes

Author

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  • Frédérique Bec
  • Jean-Olivier Hairaut

Abstract

The estimation of common trends models allows us to shed light on the debate about the source of economic fluctuations in four OECD countries. As one cointegrating relation is found between the real GNP, the government expenditures, the monetary aggregate M1 and the real GNP deflator, three common trends are identified. The supply permanent shock accounts for a large part of business cycle variations of the four variables. However, the innovations in the demand stochastic trends appear highly significant in explaining the short run fluctuations of the real GNP and have persistent effects on its level.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec & Jean-Olivier Hairaut, 1993. "Une étude empirique des sources des fluctuations économiques dans le cadre d'un modéle à tendances communes," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 30, pages 85-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:1993:i:30:p:85-120
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    1. Frédérique Bec & Jean-Olivier Hairault, 1993. "Taux d'intérêt, politique monétaire et activité économique en France : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 109(3), pages 13-24.
    2. Dudley, L., 1980. "Macroeconomic Interdependence and the Terms of Trade," Cahiers de recherche 8014, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    4. Pierre-Yves Hénin & Pierre Ralle, 1993. "Les nouvelles théories de la croissance : quelques apports pour la politique économique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(1), pages 75-100.
    5. AKITOBY, Bernardin, 1997. "Termes de l'échange endogènes et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire," Cahiers de recherche 9701, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    6. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1994. "L'impact à long terme des chocs de demande," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 883-896.
    7. Bernardin Akitoby, 1997. "Termes de l'échange endogène et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(6), pages 1485-1508.

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