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Mind the gap: city-level inflation synchronization

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  • Serhan Cevik

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The post-pandemic rise in consumer prices across the world has renewed interest in inflation dynamics after decades of global disinflation. This paper provides a spatial investigation of inflation synchronicity at the city level in Lithuania using disaggregated monthly data during the period 2000–2021. The empirical analysis provides strong evidence that (i) the co-movement of city-level inflation rates—estimated using the instantaneous quasi-correlation approach—is significantly weaker than the extent of synchronization suggested by the simple correlation analysis; (ii) there is substantial heterogeneity in the instantaneous quasi-correlation of inflation subcomponents between city pairs; and (iii) there are significant changes in the degree of city-level synchronization over time, reflecting important economic developments in history such as the global financial crisis, the adoption of euro, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhan Cevik, 2023. "Mind the gap: city-level inflation synchronization," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 70(1), pages 121-139, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:70:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s12232-023-00412-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s12232-023-00412-z
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation synchronization; Subnational; Transition economies; Lithuania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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