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Harmonic Regression Models: A Comparative Review with Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Artis
  • Jos� G. Clavel
  • Mathias Hoffmann
  • Dilip Nachane

Abstract

Strongly periodic series occur frequently in many disciplines. This paper reviews one specific approach to analyzing such series viz. the harmonic regression approach. In this paper the five major methods suggested under this approach are critically reviewed and compared, and their empirical potential highlighted via two applications. The out-of-sample forecast comparisons are made using the Superior Predictive Ability test, which specifically guards against the perils of data snooping. Certain tentative conclusions are drawn regarding the relative forecasting ability of the different methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Jos� G. Clavel & Mathias Hoffmann & Dilip Nachane, 2007. "Harmonic Regression Models: A Comparative Review with Applications," IEW - Working Papers 333, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:333
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    File URL: https://www.econ.uzh.ch/apps/workingpapers/wp/iewwp333.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2021. "Disentangling the enigma of multi-structured economic cycles - A new appearance of the golden ratio," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Andreas Lichtenberger & Joao Paulo Braga & Willi Semmler, 2022. "Green Bonds for the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mixed spectrum; autoregressive methods; eigenvalue methods; dynamic harmonic regression; data snooping: multiple forecast comparisons;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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