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Wächst die deutsche Industrie nur durch den Export?

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  • Grömling, Michael
  • Matthes, Jürgen
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    Abstract

    Die deutsche Wirtschaftsstruktur mit ihrem relativ hohen Industriegewicht und der damit einhergehenden Weltmarktorientierung stehen derzeit in der Kritik. Auf Basis von Wachstumsbeiträgen und der Input-Output-Rechnung lässt sich zeigen, wie die Wertschöpfung ausgewählter industrieller Güterbereiche durch die heimische Endnachfrage, die Vorleistungen und den Außenbeitrag erklärt werden kann. Im Ergebnis hat - anders als zuweilen behauptet - nicht nur der Außenhandel das Wachstum der Wertschöpfung wichtiger Produktgruppen angetrieben, sondern auch die steigende Inlandsnachfrage auf der Vorleistungs- und Endverbrauchsebene. Bei Maschinen und Chemieprodukten dominiert zwar der Außenbeitrag. Dies erklärt sich aber vor allem aus dem globalen Investitionsboom und weniger aus den Ausfuhren in konsumorientierte Staaten mit Leistungsbilanzdefiziten. Mit diesem Konzept kann auch der weitgehend konstante Anteil der Industriegüter an der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wertschöpfung erklärt werden. -- The high share of manufacturing and the strong export orientation of Germany's economy are presently drawing fire by some critics. A concept of growth contributions based on input-output statistics explains to which extent final domestic demand, inputs and net exports contribute to the growth of value added of selected industrial product groups. Contrary to popular allegations, it shows that, in general, net exports are only one growth driver for major product groups. The others are domestic demand of inputs and of final consumption and investment. While the influence of net exports dominates for machinery and chemical products, this is largely a result of the global investment boom rather than of exports to consumption-oriented countries with large current account deficits. The concept also explains the principally constant share of industrial goods in total value added in Germany.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik in its series Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beiträge with number 110.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewwb:110

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