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A score-test on measurement errors in rating transition times

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  • Rafael Weißbach, Rafael
  • Voß, Sebastian

Abstract

We model credit rating histories as continuous-time discrete-state Markov processes. Infrequent monitoring of the debtors' solvency will result in erroneous observations of the rating transition times, and consequently in biased parameter estimates. We develop a score test against such measurement errors in the transition data that is independent of the error distribution. We derive the asymptotic chi-square distribution for the test statistic under the null by stochastic limit theory. The test is applied to an international corporate portfolio, while accounting for economic and debtor-specific covariates. The test indicates that measurement errors in the transition times are a real problem in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Weißbach, Rafael & Voß, Sebastian, 2014. "A score-test on measurement errors in rating transition times," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100532, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100532
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Weißbach & Lucas Radloff, 2020. "Consistency for the negative binomial regression with fixed covariate," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 83(5), pages 627-641, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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