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Simulation der Schuldenbremse und der Schuldenschranke für die deutschen Bundesländer


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  • Plachta, Robert C.
  • Groneck, Max
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    Die Arbeit untersucht die bestehenden Budgetregeln in Deutschland und stellt zwei aktuelle Reformvorschläge vor, die Schweizer Schuldenbremse und die Schuldenschranke des Sachverständigenrats. Investitionen nach dem Haushaltsrecht werden mit dem Nettoinvestitionsbegriff verglichen und auf ihre Eignung geprüft, die Obergrenze für die Aufnahme von Krediten nach der Goldenen Regel zu bilden. Eine ex-post Simulation der Reformvorschläge für die deutschen Bundesländer offenbart die Konsolidierungshöhe, die damit einhergehenden Leistungseinschränkungen und die Entwicklung der Verschuldung. Dabei wird die bislang in der Literatur verwendete Methodik mit einer neuen polit-ökonomischen Simulation verglichen, die zu realitätsnäheren Ergebnissen führt. -- This paper analyses the shortcomings of the current budget rules for the Bundesländer, especially the definition of public investment that is used as a deficit ceiling in Germany. Two alternative budget rules are analysed, the Swiss debt brake as well as a version incorporating a golden rule presented by the the German Council of Economic Experts. A simulation reveals the necessary consolidation path, the loss of benefits, and the recursive development of public debt. In addition to the standard simulation method we present a politico-economic approach that leads to new results.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics in its series FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge with number 07-7.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:5906

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    Keywords: Verschuldung der Bundesländer; Schuldenbremse; Schuldenschranke; Goldene Regel; Öffentliche Investitionen; Public debt; German Bundesländer; debt brake; golden rule; public investment;

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