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Failing to deter Russia's war against Ukraine: The role of misperceptions

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  • Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

Despite what looked like tremendous efforts by the West to deter Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin started a full-scale military invasion across the Ukrainian border from the north, east, and south. Clarifying why these deterrence efforts did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strategies to stop Russia's aggression. It would also allow for adjusting future policies of deterrence against Russia. The EU and NATO should consider their misperceptions about Russia that undermined their ability to politically and militarily discourage Russia's aggression. They also should consider what actions have fuelled Russia's misperceptions about the West and emboldened the Kremlin to launch its military invasion of Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Minzarari, Dumitru, 2022. "Failing to deter Russia's war against Ukraine: The role of misperceptions," SWP Comments 33/2022, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:swpcom:332022
    DOI: 10.18449/2022C33
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