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Die deutsche Vereinigung und das Leistungsbilanzdefizit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse der USA und Deutschlands

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  • Schimmelpfennig, Axel

Abstract

The German current account balance has moved from surplus to deßcit in the course of unificalion. A theorelical model for the current account, encompassing the elaslicities, the monetary, and the absorptions approach, is set up and lested for Germany and the United States, using cointegration analysis. In addition, private savings are modelled by a life-cylce model nested in a model of overlapping generations. A counlry's private and government savings are idenlified as the major factors driving the current accounl. Private savings are explained by the specified model. The concepi of a primary deßcit as well as the concept of half- and full-debt-cycles are used to argue that the German current account deßcit can easily move from sustainability lo unsuslainability in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Schimmelpfennig, Axel, 1997. "Die deutsche Vereinigung und das Leistungsbilanzdefizit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse der USA und Deutschlands," Kiel Working Papers 788, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:788
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    Cited by:

    1. Strauß, Hubert M., 1999. "Stock Market Wealth, Private Saving, and the Current Account in the United States: Should We Worry?," Kiel Working Papers 963, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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