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Prognose und Prognoseanpassung für das Jahr 2020

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  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Aufgrund der massiven wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie haben wir unsere Prognose für 2020 im Verlauf des Jahres erheblich revidiert. Das Ausmaß der Revision für die Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2020 von unserer Winter-Prognose aus dem Jahr 2019, bei der die Corona-Pandemie noch nicht absehbar war, und der aktuellen Herbstprognose in Höhe von 6,6 Prozentpunkten ist ungewöhnlich hoch und verdeutlicht das Ausmaß der wirtschaftlichen Krise (Tabelle K1-1). Seit dem Jahr 1991 lagen unsere absoluten Revisionen zwischen Winter- und Herbstprognose im Mittel bei 0,8 Prozentpunkten. Die größten Revisionen ergaben sich mit je 2,2 Prozentpunkten bislang in den Jahren 2009 und 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils, 2020. "Prognose und Prognoseanpassung für das Jahr 2020," Kiel Insight 2020.13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:202013
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    1. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2020. "Zum Fiskalimpuls des Konjunkturpakets [On the fiscal impulse of the stimulus package]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 559-560, July.
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