Desired fertility and migration in LDCs: Signing the Connection

In this paper we attempt to ascertain the impact on parents' desired fertility of a number of changes likely to increase the returns to the rural-to-urban migration of children. We assume that the demand for children as assets depends upon the extent to which they raise the mean per capita family income, and reduce the uncertainty of per capita family income, and we argue that the effect of rural-to-urban migration possibilities on the optimal number of children depends crucially on the role played by children in their capacity as assets. On the basis of purely theoretical considerations we succeed in determining the likely effect of four out of eight changes in asset attributes. It is hoped that our results also define a fruitful domain for empirical inquiry.