How to evaluate budget support conditionality and policy dialogue: using the qualitative approach to causality

After decades of providing development aid, international aid agencies are still in search of more effective aid modalities. In this context, budget support has emerged as a potential candidate that could foster positive changes in poverty reduction. Unfortunately, the verdict on the effectiveness of this aid modality is still being discussed. By looking at budget support conditionality and policy dialogue, this paper argues that the application such qualitative methods to causality as Qualitative Comparative Analysis and Process-Tracing can go a long way towards answering the question of the effectiveness of budget support. When the causality chain is long and explanatory factors are numerous, as in the case of budget support, these methods can help to establish causality by tracing the causal pathways and causal mechanisms.