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Dectecting speculative bubbles in stock prices: A new approach and some evidence for the US

Author

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  • Bohl, Martin T.
  • Siklos, Pierre L.

Abstract

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an empirically valid description of US stock price behavior in the long-run, while short-run deviations of actual share prices from present value prices are driven by nonfundamental factors like speculative bubbles and/or noise trading behavior. Our empirical findings for the US stock market covering the 1871:1 - 2000:12 period provide strong and robust support for the hypothesis that in the short-run US stock prices exhibit nonfundamental run-ups followed by crashes, while in the long-run US share prices adhere to fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2001. "Dectecting speculative bubbles in stock prices: A new approach and some evidence for the US," Research Notes 01-3, Deutsche Bank Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:013
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Present Value Model; US Stock Prices; Asymmetric Adjustment; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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