The Multinomial Multiperiod Probit Model: Identification and Efficient Estimation
AbstractIn this paper we discuss parameter identification and likelihood evaluation for multinomial multiperiod Probit models. It is shown in particular that the standard autoregressive specification used in the literature can be interpreted as a latent common factor model. However, this specification is not invariant with respect to the selection of the baseline category. Hence, we propose an alternative specification which is invariant with respect to such a selection and identifies coefficients characterizing the stationary covariance matrix which are not identified in the standard approach. For likelihood evaluation requiring high-dimensional truncated integration we propose to use a generic procedure known as Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). A special case of our proposed EIS algorithm is the standard GHK probability simulator. To illustrate the relative performance of both procedures we perform a set Monte-Carlo experiments. Our results indicate substantial numerical e?ciency gains of the ML estimates based on GHK-EIS relative to ML estimates obtained by using GHK. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2007,26.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Discrete choice; Importance sampling; Monte-Carlo integration; Panel data; Parameter identification; Simulated maximum likelihood;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-11-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2007-11-03 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-ECM-2007-11-03 (Econometrics)
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- Aßmann, Christian, 2008. "Assessing the Effect of Current Account and Currency Crises on Economic Growth," Economics Working Papers 2008,01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Aßmann, Christian, 2011. "Assessing the effect of current account and currency crises on economic growth," BERG Working Paper Series 80, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
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