IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitb/82021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Barker, Jamie
  • Herrala, Risto

Abstract

Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India's mid-term growth rate by other institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Barker, Jamie & Herrala, Risto, 2021. "Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:82021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251709/1/bpb2108.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Parma Chakravartti & Sudipto Mundle, 2019. "Forecasting India’s economic growth: a time-varying parameter regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 205-228, September.
    2. Herrala, Risto, 2020. "Capital controls in an integrated world: A review of recent developments, policies and the academic debate," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Iyer, Tara, 2019. "Quarterly Forecasting Model for India’s Economic Growth: Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 573, Asian Development Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shikha Gupta & Nand Kumar, 2023. "Time varying dynamics of globalization effect in India," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 22(1), pages 81-97, January.
    2. Stotsky, Janet G. & Chakraborty, Lekha & Gandhi, Piyush, 2018. "Impact of Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers on Gender Equality in India: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 18/240, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Iyer , Tara & Sen Gupta, Abhijit, 2019. "Nowcasting Economic Growth in India: The Role of Rainfall," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 593, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Shikha Gupta & Nand Kumar, 2021. "Dynamics of globalization effect in India," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1394-1406, September.
    5. K. M. Salah Uddin & Nishat Tanzim, 2023. "Forecasting GDP of Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(6), pages 1-56, February.
    6. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Mundle, Sudipto, 2021. "A nowcast of 2021-22 GDP growth and forecast for 2022-23 based on a Factor Augmented Time Varying Coefficients Regression Model," Working Papers 21/361, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indian economy; forecasting; GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:82021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.