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Russian foreign trade after four months of war in Ukraine

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  • Simola, Heli

Abstract

This brief examines the development of Russia's trade flows in the March-June period following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia ceased publication of foreign trade statistics after the war broke out, so we utilize the trade statistics of Russia's major trading partners. We find that Russia's imports declined substantially in the period with the country struggling to find alternative import sources. On the other hand, Russian export revenues increased post-invasion due to high commodity prices, the lag in transition periods for EU import restrictions and higher export volumes going to other markets. Russian industrial output reflects a shift in foreign trade. High-tech industries reliant on imported inputs contracted, while output remained robust for some export-oriented industries. The first months of war show sanctions took an increasing toll on the Russian economy, seriously eroding the country's long-term growth potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Simola, Heli, 2022. "Russian foreign trade after four months of war in Ukraine," BOFIT Policy Briefs 5/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:52022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Long-term challenges to Russian economic policy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 11/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Simola, Heli, 2022. "Made in Russia? Assessing Russia's potential for import substitution," BOFIT Policy Briefs 3/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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    Cited by:

    1. Simola, Heli, 2023. "The shift in Russian trade during a year of war," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Simola, Heli, 2022. "Can Russia reorient its trade and financial flows?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 7/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    1. Simola, Heli, 2022. "Can Russia reorient its trade and financial flows?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 7/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Simola, Heli, 2022. "Made in Russia? Assessing Russia's potential for import substitution," BOFIT Policy Briefs 3/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Röyskö, Aino & Simola, Heli, 2022. "Russia's technology imports from East Asia," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; trade; sanctions;
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