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Javni dug u novim zemljama članicama Europske unije – fiskalna konsolidacija vs. ekonomski rast

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Matošec
  • Tomislav Globan

    (Ekonomski fakultet - Zagreb, Sveučilište u Zagrebu)

Abstract

U ovom se radu analiziraju odrednice javnog duga u novim zemljama članicama Europske unije. Cilj analize je ispitati fiskalnu poziciju novih zemalja članica Europske unije te pružiti prijedloge za uspješnije suzbijanje dužničke krize. Analizom se nastoji odgovoriti na ključno pitanje: ima li jači utjecaj na smanjenje omjera javnog duga i BDP-u fiskalna konsolidacija (brojnik) ili ekonomski rast (nazivnik)? Rezultati panel ekonometrijske analize pokazali su kako se postizanjem uravnoteženijeg državnog proračuna stopa rasta javnog duga u prosjeku smanjuje, no učinak se pokazao prilično malenim. S druge strane, procijenjeni parametri uz stopu rasta BDP-a višestruko su veći. Ovi rezultati upućuju na zaključak da se rješavanju dužničke krize treba pristupiti primarno poticanjem ekonomskog rasta, ali ne zanemarujući visoku cijenu potencijalno neodgovornog upravljanja javnim financijama. Rješenje treba tražiti u kompromisu – razborito upravljanje državnim proračunom ostvaruje se uštedama gdje postoje neefikasnosti, pritom ne gušeći ekonomski rast već potičući ga u skladu s vlastitim potencijalima.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Matošec & Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Javni dug u novim zemljama članicama Europske unije – fiskalna konsolidacija vs. ekonomski rast," EFZG Working Papers Series 1514, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:1514
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dužnička kriza; ekonomski rast; fiskalna konsolidacija; javni dug; nove zemlje članice EU-a;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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