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Predicting the COVID-19 epidemic: is a regional approach preferable?

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Coroneo,
  • Fabrizio Iacone,
  • Giancarlo Manzi,
  • Silvia Salini

Abstract

We use a SIRD model to predict the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Italian regions at 1 to 4 weeks ahead. Out of sample forecasting results indicate that national forecasts obtained by aggregating regional forecasts are more accurate than predictions from a national model. These results suggest that national health authorities should take into account the level of heterogeneity across regions when predicting the spread of a national epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Coroneo, & Fabrizio Iacone, & Giancarlo Manzi, & Silvia Salini, 2021. "Predicting the COVID-19 epidemic: is a regional approach preferable?," Discussion Papers 21/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:21/06
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Aggregation; Forecast evaluation; Epidemic.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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