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Biases in Bias Elicitation

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  • Giancarlo Manzi
  • Martin Forster

Abstract

We consider the biases that can arise in bias elicitation when expert assessors make random errors. We illustrate the phenomenon for two sources of bias: that due to omitting important variables in a least squares regression and that which arises in adjusting relative risks for treatment effects using an elicitation scale. Results show that, even when assessors' elicitations of bias have desirable properties (such as unbiasedness and independence), the nonlinear nature of biases can lead to elicitations of bias that are, themselves, biased. We show the corrections which can be made to remove this bias and discuss the implications for the applied literature which employs these methods.

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File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2012/1204.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 12/04.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:12/04

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Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
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Keywords: bias reduction; expert elicitation; elicitation scales; omitted cariable bias;

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