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A Model of offensive versus Defensive Technology: When Does Terrorism Occur?

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  • Jin Yeub Kim

    (Yonsei Univ)

Abstract

Offense-defense theory argues that conflict and war are more likely when offense has the advantage over defense. This paper explores how the prime hy- potheses in offense-defense theory can be challenged when it comes to making predictions about conflicts or terrorism caused by revisionist states. To do so, I propose a model of a continuous time conflict game between two asymmetric states, in which a status quo state develops defensive technology and a revi- sionist state develops offensive technology, with incomplete information on the revisionist state's militancy level. The equilibrium analysis shows that the risk of terrorism is maximized when the overall offense-defense balance is relatively even. This paper suggests an alternative framework in explaining asymmetric conflicts in the contemporary context, and provides insights into understanding the likelihood of terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Yeub Kim, 2020. "A Model of offensive versus Defensive Technology: When Does Terrorism Occur?," Working papers 2020rwp-173, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:yon:wpaper:2020rwp-173
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