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Evaluating Lotteries, Risks, and Risk-mitigation Programs

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Author Info
Wang, Mei () (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)
Fischbeck, Paul () (Carnegie Mellon University, Social and Decision Science Department)
Abstract

Two experiments were designed to explore the existence of systematic differences in risk perceptions and risk attitudes between Chinese and U.S. participants. The first experiment involved ranking monetary lotteries using measures of perceived riskiness and WTP. Several simple heuristics were evaluated to predict perceived riskiness and WTP. Using WTP responses, cumulative prospect theory functions were determined for participants from both countries. Compared to their U.S. counterparts, Chinese participants are found to be less risk averse and to have higher within group agreement for each task. The second experiment involved ranking real-world risks and associated risk-mitigation programs using measures of concern and preference, respectively. Conjoint analysis reveals additional cultural differences in the perception and evaluation of multi-attribute risks and risk-mitigation programs. The cross-cultural versus cross-task variation are discussed.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 04-13.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 05 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:04-13

Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Payne, John W & Bettman, James R & Schkade, David A, 1999. "Measuring Constructed Preferences: Towards a Building Code," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 243-70, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  3. Ranyard, Rob, 1995. "Reversals of Preference between Compound and Simple Risks: The Role of Editing Heuristics," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 159-75, September.
  4. Tversky, Amos & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Anomalies: Preference Reversals," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 201-11, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alderfer, Clayton P & Bierman, Harold, Jr, 1970. "Choices with Risk: Beyond the Mean and Variance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(3), pages 341-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fischhoff, Baruch & Welch, Ned & Fredrick, Shane, 1999. "Construal Processes in Preference Assessment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 139-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60, pages 151. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tversky, Amos & Slovic, Paul & Kahneman, Daniel, 1990. "The Causes of Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 204-17, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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