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Evaluating The Forecast of Densities of Linear and Non-Linear Models: Applications to Output Growth and Unemployment Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Clements, M.P.
Smith J.
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In economics density forecasts are rarely available, and as a result attention has traditionally focused on poit forecasts of the mean and the use of mean square error statistics to represent the loss function. We extend the methods of forecasts density evaluation in Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1997) to compare linear and non-linear model based forecasts of US out put growth and changes in the unemployment rate.
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Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number
509.
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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 1998Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:509Contact details of provider: Postal: CV4 7AL COVENTRY Phone: +44 (0) 2476 523202 Fax: +44 (0) 2476 523032 Web page: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/papers/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: FORECASTS STATISTICS LINEAR MODELS Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
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