Mind the Gap – International Comparison of Cyclical Adjustment of the Budget
AbstractCyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) is a widely cited and widely used concept in the evaluationof fiscal situations. The key idea behind it involves the identification of potential levels of economic variables.There are two recently used methods: the aggregate approach and the unconstrained disaggregateapproach. In this paper we apply them on USA, Japan and 25 EU member countries to demonstratethat both approaches could be the source of considerable bias. While the aggregate approachcannot cope with different shocks, the unconstrained disaggregate method involves systematic biasand do not contain theoretical consideration. In order to avoid these distortions we present an alternativeframework, which is able to incorporate the advantages of both approaches. Combining arbitraryoutput gap and constrained multivariate HP filter induces theoretically motivated disaggregation wherewe also exploit the implication of production function parameterisation. We found that the price effectresulting from the composition effect of different deflators could play an important role in evaluation ofthe fiscal position. To display the importance of composition effect we analyse the cyclical componentsof Finnish, Hungarian and Italian budget balances more in detail.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0512010.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
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cyclically adjusted budget deficit; price gap; business cycles; constrained multivariate HP filter;
Other versions of this item:
- Gábor P. Kiss & Gábor Vadas, 2005. "Mind the Gap – International Comparison of Cyclical Adjustment of the Budget," MNB Working Papers 2005/04, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-12-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-12-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-12-20 (Public Economics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Mind the gap! And the way structural budget balances are calculated*
by ? in Bruegel blog on 2013-10-12 16:29:03
- Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
- George Kopits, 2007. "Fiscal Responsibility Framework: International Experience and Implications for Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2007/62, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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