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Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries

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  • Martin Melecky

    (University of New South Wales, School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect of current-account reversals on growth appears to be similar across considered regions, however, one cannot draw any general conclusion about the importance of the unanticipated component of the reversals for growth. The effect of currency crises appears to vary across the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. The unanticipated component of the currency crises is significant only in CEE. The unanticipated component in the effect of the joint crisis on growth appears to be important in Latin America, and with lower precision also in CEE and Asia.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0502/0502003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0502003.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0502003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Anticipations; External Crises; Growth Cycle; Panel Data.;

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