IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/0502003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Melecky

    (University of New South Wales, School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect of current-account reversals on growth appears to be similar across considered regions, however, one cannot draw any general conclusion about the importance of the unanticipated component of the reversals for growth. The effect of currency crises appears to vary across the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. The unanticipated component of the currency crises is significant only in CEE. The unanticipated component in the effect of the joint crisis on growth appears to be important in Latin America, and with lower precision also in CEE and Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Melecky, 2005. "Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries," International Finance 0502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0502003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/0502/0502003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anticipations; External Crises; Growth Cycle; Panel Data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0502003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.