Beat The Market
AbstractSpeculation in asset market is modelled as a stochastic betting game played by finite number of players and repeated infinite times. With stochastic asset return and unkown quality of public signal, a generic adaptive learning rule is proposed and the corresponding evolutionary dynamics is analyzed. The impact of historical events on players' belief decays over time. It is proved to be a robust approach to adapt to stochastic regime shifts in the market. The market dynamics has characteristics, i.e. endogenous boom-bust cycle, positive correlation in return and volume, and negative first order autocorrelation in return series, commonly observed in financial market but inexplicable by conventional rational expectations theory.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Game Theory and Information with number 0507006.
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 21
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Evolutionary Dynamics; Adaptive Learning; Behavioral Finance;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-07-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-07-18 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-GTH-2005-07-18 (Game Theory)
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