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Beat The Market

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  • Fan Wang

    (Stony Brook University, JP Morgan Chase & Co.)

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Abstract

Speculation in asset market is modelled as a stochastic betting game played by finite number of players and repeated infinite times. With stochastic asset return and unkown quality of public signal, a generic adaptive learning rule is proposed and the corresponding evolutionary dynamics is analyzed. The impact of historical events on players' belief decays over time. It is proved to be a robust approach to adapt to stochastic regime shifts in the market. The market dynamics has characteristics, i.e. endogenous boom-bust cycle, positive correlation in return and volume, and negative first order autocorrelation in return series, commonly observed in financial market but inexplicable by conventional rational expectations theory.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/game/papers/0507/0507006.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Game Theory and Information with number 0507006.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:0507006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 21
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Evolutionary Dynamics; Adaptive Learning; Behavioral Finance;

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