Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Quel prix pour les options UMTS? Une approche par les options réelles

Contents:

Author Info

  • Véronique Bessière

    (CREGO - Université Montpellier 2)

  • Michael Kaestner

    (GESEM - Université Montpellier 1)

Abstract

Cet article présente une méthodologie d’évaluation des licences UMTS en utilisant un modèle d’options réelles. L’acquisition d’une licence est perçue comme donnant droit à entreprendre les investissements d’infrastructure du réseau, que la firme peut différer dans le temps. La valeur de la licence correspond alors à l’option d’investissement. Les investissements sont supposés réalisés en une fois, et les cash-flows futurs qui en résultent sont incertains. L’incertitude sur les cash- flows peut inciter la firme à attendre avant de réaliser l’investissement, même si la VAN espérée est positive. Nous déterminons la valeur de la licence UMTS et spécifions le seuil de cash-flows pour lequel la VAN dévient égale à la valeur de l’option et auquel il devient optimal de réaliser l’investissement. Nous discutons l’impact des différents paramètres (volatilité et taux de croissance des cash-flows, coût de l’investissement, …) sur la décision d’investissement. Abstract: This article describes a methodology for evaluating UMTS licenses using a real options approach. The acquisition of the license is viewed as the right to undertake the infrastructure investments that the firm can defer. The value of this license equals the value of the investment opportunity. The investment is assumed to be instantaneous and the cash flows associated with the investment are uncertain. This uncertainty of future cash flows might make it attractive to wait before investing even if the expected NPV is positive. The solution specifies the cash flow threshold, where NPV equals the option value and when it the investment should be undertaken. We simulate the impact of different variables (volatility, expected growth rate of cash flows, investment cost, ...) on the investment rule.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0506/0506001.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0506001.

as in new window
Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0506001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18. Article in french language
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: UMTS; real options; simulation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0506001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.