Although 2002 will be a weak year for rental apartment operations in almost all markets, the real estate industry will weather this downturn significantly better than it did in the early 1980s and mid-1970s. A return to meaningful net operating growth income depends on when concessions begin to diminish and effective rents rise. The key variables to watch are whether the homeownership rate continues to rise above 68 percent, or begins to recede to its early 1990 rate of 64 percent; whether apartment starts fall to the low-to mid-100,000s, or continue closer to 200,000; and, whether the economy can gather momen-tum throughout 2002, once again creating meaningful job growth.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania in its series Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers with number
425.