Debt Sustainability and Growth in Croatia
AbstractCroatia's external debt has been growing steadily since the exchange rate stabilization in 1994. It reached almost 85% of GDP at the end of 2003. The level and the trend raise questions of sustainability and thus of an appropriate policy response. The current trend of debt accumulation is not sustainable. In the past five years, the debt to GDP and to exports of goods and services ratios have been growing by 8 percentage points on average. The horizon of sustainability, however, is not easy to determine. If high growth rates could be sustained and there are no adverse external shocks, stability could be extended over the medium term but probably not longer. The main policy challenge stems from the nature of the external debt problem that Croatia faces. It is more supply- than demand-driven low exports and high imports point to an exchange rate misalignment. If that is the case, then monetary and fiscal policies that restrict demand tend to trade growth for debt in the short run, i.e., slower growth of debt is achieved with lower growth rates. The supply side problem, however, needs to be addressed through measures that increase competitiveness. In the absence of exchange rate flexibility, incomes policy is the alternative. Its feasibility and effects should be studied carefully.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Research Reports with number 306.
Length: 31 pages including 1 Table and 34 Figures
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Research Report
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Customer service).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.