Transition Countries Face Up to Global Stagnation: Is It Catching?
AbstractThe report provides an overview of macroeconomic developments in 2001 and discusses prospects for 2002 and 2003. It covers twelve transition countries Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia. It also includes Bosnia-Herzegovina, albeit not fully, for want of data. By the second half of 2001, the slowdown in global economic growth in leading economies had developed into stagnation, whereas in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) GDP kept on growing; some of the latter countries even recorded growth rates higher than in 2000. That notwithstanding, data related to the final months of 2001 point to a slowdown in GDP growth as well, as industrial output growth faded and foreign trade lost its dynamics. In most of the CEECs, inflation dropped to rates lower than a year before, yet still higher than the EU average. Towards the end of 2001, instances of a month-to-month decline in consumer and producer prices became frequent, inducing a trend towards more stability. The more advanced CEECs except Slovenia experienced nominal appreciation of their currencies, in most cases for the first time in years. This implied strong real appreciation, yet given the slowdown in GDP and import growth, it did not lead to huge trade and current account deficits. There is, however, every danger of real appreciation veering out of control in the future. The central banks' interest rate policy varied greatly in the individual countries. Whereas the Czech national bank followed the example set by the US Federal Reserve Bank, others opted to maintain high nominal and real interest rates. In the first half of 2002, most of the CEECs will not experience very much growth in GDP, industrial output and exports. In the second half, improvements in the EU business climate should boost growth again. Should these optimistic expectations materialize, high GDP growth will be back on track in 2003.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Research Reports with number 283.
Length: 95 pages including 29 Tables and 14 Figures
Date of creation: Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Research Report
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
- P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
- P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
- P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
- P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Hubert Gabrisch & Karin Szalai, 2002. "The use of unit values in estimating trade-related capital flight -The case of CEE countries with special focus on Russia," IWH Discussion Papers 161, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Customer service).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.