Monthly Report No. 01/2020

Chart of the month Two decades of disappointing convergence in the Western Balkans by Richard Grieveson Opinion Corner Western Balkans caught in a Franco-German fight by Richard Grieveson 2019 was a bad year for the EU accession prospects of the Western Balkans, and it is likely to be many years before even the frontrunners join. The most significant country blocking EU accession is France, and this appears to be part of a bigger conflict with Germany over the future of the EU. Without the realistic prospect of EU accession, there is a risk of backsliding on reforms in the Western Balkans, and the region will remain stuck at a low level of development. Demographic developments in the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine by Isilda Mara The Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine have registered strong population declines over the past two decades, due to both low birth rates and high outward migration. A further decline is expected until 2050 – by up to 35% in the case of Ukraine – resulting in demographic losses that may affect the convergence prospects of these countries. Labour market institutions in the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine by Sebastian Leitner Collective bargaining mechanisms in the Western Balkan countries, Moldova and Ukraine are generally less developed than, for instance, in Austria, and have been weakened since the global financial crisis. On top of that, their range is constrained by the high incidence of informal employment. Employment protection regulations in these countries have been further liberalised and only a small share of jobseekers receive unemployment benefits. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe