Climate Change, Urban Expansion, and Food Production

Where and how cities grow will influence food production and the risks to food production.This paper estimates the overlap of future urban expansion in 2040 and 2100 with current crop and livestock productionunder different climate scenarios. First, it finds that urban areas will expand most into areas with fruits,vegetables, and chickens, and urban areas will expand most under a scenario with significant challenges to climatechange mitigation. Second, the share of food producing areas that will overlap with urban expansion will be largest inAfrica, particularly under a scenario of significant challenges to climate change adaptation. Third, across allscenarios, urban expansion is likely to take place in areas with higher crop or livestock production, but even more sowhen there are significant challenges to both mitigation and adaptation.