Europe and Central Asia region Middle East and North Africa region population projects : 1992-93 edition

Population projections for all countries are prepared annually by the Bank's Population and Human Resources Department. They are published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. Separate papers cover the six Bank regions: (1) Africa (sub-Saharan); (2) Latin America and the Caribbean (and North America); (3) East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined; and (4) Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined. This year's projections contain two major changes from the previous edition. First, projected mortality from AIDS has been incorporated into the tables for sub-Saharan African countries. Second, demographic estimates and projections are provided separately for each of the fifteen countries that constituted the former Soviet Union. Among trends observed: The total fertility rate for the world is an estimated 3.2 children per woman in 1992. The highest total fertility rates are found in East and West Africa, where the rate is about 6. Most countries in the Asian and Latin American regions have moderate fertility of three to five children per woman, although both continents contain countries with very high and very low levels. More developed countries have the lowest fertility, with rates ranging between 2.5 and 1.5, but one of the former Soviet republics, Tajikistan, has a total fertility of 5. Europe (including the former Soviet republics) is the only continent where aggregate fertility is currently below replacement - that is, where women are not having enough children to replace themselves. Recent trends in some countries of Europe show small increases in fertility, and the projections assume that the total fertility rate will recover to replacement level by 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most homogeneous fertility levels: with the exception of four of the former Soviet republics that have total fertility rates above 3, fertility in the other 41 countries varies in a narrow range between 1.5 and 2.8. The Northern American region has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. The European region has the second highest aggregate life expectancy, 74.4. Every country in this region is above the world's average of 66. Moving from west to east through this region, life expectancies tend to decline, from a high of 78 in Iceland to a low of 66 in Turkmenistan.