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The option value of developing two product standards simultaneously when the final standard is uncertain

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Author Info
Onno Lint ()
Enrico Pennings (Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School)

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Abstract

This paper presents a framework for valuing managerial flexibility within the context of product standardization. The framework originates in a major standardization problem concerning digital tape recording at Philips Electronics. We use insights from financial option theory to calculate the option value of simultaneously developing two correlated product standards, and then compare this value to the option value of developing a single standard. We determine a threshold level such that for lower follow-on investment outlays development of both standards is optimal while for higher investment levels development of a single standard is optimal. This threshold is negatively related to the correlation between the value of the two standards. Finally, we show that properly incorporating uncertainty and the interdependence between the payoffs to the two standards leads to significantly different conclusions from standard NPV-analysis.

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Paper provided by Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School in its series Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series with number 2002-10.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 22 Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2002-10

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  1. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Standardization, Compatibility, and Innovation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(1), pages 70-83, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Han T. J. Smit & L. A. Ankum, 1993. "A Real Options and Game-Theoretic Approach to," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  3. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Klemperer, Paul, 1987. "Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 375-94, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  6. Pennings, Enrico & Lint, Onno, 1997. "The option value of advanced R & D," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 83-94, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gal-Or, Esther, 1985. "First Mover and Second Mover Advantages," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 649-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Beggs, Alan W & Klemperer, Paul, 1992. "Multi-period Competition with Switching Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 651-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stulz, ReneM., 1982. "Options on the minimum or the maximum of two risky assets : Analysis and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 161-185, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Johnson, Herb, 1987. "Options on the Maximum or the Minimum of Several Assets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 277-283, September. [Downloadable!]
  13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Arman Avadikyan & Patrick Llerena, 2009. "Socio-technical transition processes: A real option based reasoning," Working Papers of BETA 2009-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
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