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Understanding the Heterogeneity of Covid-19 Deaths and Contagions: The Role of Air Pollution and Lockdown Decisions

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Listed:
  • Becchetti, Leonardo
  • Conzo, Gianluigi
  • Conzo, Pierluigi
  • Salustri, Francesco

    (University of Turin)

Abstract

he uneven geographical distribution of the novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in Italy is a puzzle given the intense flow of movements among the different geographical areas before lockdown decisions. To shed light on it, we test the effect of the quality of air (as measured by particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) and lockdown restrictions on daily adverse COVID-19 outcomes at province level. We find that air pollution is positively correlated with adverse outcomes of the epidemic, withlockdown being strongly significant and more effective in reducing deceases in more polluted areas. Results are robust to different methods including cross-section, pooled and fixed-effect panel regressions (controlling for spatial correlation), instrumental variable regressions, and difference-in-differences estimates of lockdown decisions through predicted counterfactual trends. They are consistent with the consolidated body of literature in previous medical studies suggesting that poor quality of air creates chronic exposure to adverse outcomes from respiratory diseases. The estimated correlation does not change when accounting for other factors such as temperature, commuting flows, quality of regional health systems, share of public transport users, population density, the presence of Chinese community, and proxies for industry breakdown such as the share of small (artisan) firms. Our findings provide suggestions for investigating uneven geographical distribution patterns in other countries, and have implications for environmental and lockdown policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Becchetti, Leonardo & Conzo, Gianluigi & Conzo, Pierluigi & Salustri, Francesco, 2020. "Understanding the Heterogeneity of Covid-19 Deaths and Contagions: The Role of Air Pollution and Lockdown Decisions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202014, University of Turin.
  • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:202014
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Effect on Health

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric S. Coker & Laura Cavalli & Enrico Fabrizi & Gianni Guastella & Enrico Lippo & Maria Laura Parisi & Nicola Pontarollo & Massimiliano Rizzati & Alessandro Varacca & Sergio Vergalli, 2020. "The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 611-634, August.
    2. Berta, P. & Bratti, M. & Fiorio, C.V. & Pisoni, E. & Verzillo, S., 2021. "Administrative border effects in Covid-19 related mortality," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 21/21, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Rolando Fuentes & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Lanza & Baltasar Manzano, 2020. "COVID-19 and Climate Change: A Tale of Two Global Problems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Tappi, Marco & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2021. "On the management of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(8), pages 995-1001.
    5. Vincenzo D'Apice & Giovanni Ferri & Mariantonietta Intonti, 2021. "Sustainable disclosure versus ESG intensity: Is there a cross effect between holding and SRI funds?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1496-1510, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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