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Balance-of-Payment-Constrained Growth: The Case of China, 1979-2002

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  • Yongbok Jeon
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    Abstract

    The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979-2002. For the income elasticity of import demand, an aggregate import demand function for the Chinese economy is estimated using ARDL-UECM model and the bounds test. This study finds (1) that for 1979-2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts, the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of demand-side approach to economic growth in China.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Utah, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah with number 2006_06.

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    Length: 46 pages
    Date of creation: 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2006_06

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    Related research

    Keywords: Chinese economy; balance-of-payment constrained growth; aggregate import function; trade multiplier; bounds test for cointegration;

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