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予想に働きかける政策をゲーム理論で考える

Author

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  • Takashi Ui

    (Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

2013 年以来，日本銀行は人々のインフレ予想に働きかけて 2% のインフレ率を実現 ようとしてきたが，2021 年まで成功していない．本稿ではゲーム理論の視点から「なぜ インフレ予想の操作は難しいのか」という問題について考える．予想インフレ率が長期 間安定しているとき，その予想インフレ率は共有知識となり，分析哲学者デイヴィッド・ ルイスの意味での慣習として定着する．このときインフレ予想を操作するには，一人ひ とりのインフレ予想だけでなく，その共有知識の操作が必要になる．共有知識の操作に 成功した例として，1994 年にブラジルで実施されたレアル計画について検討する．ま た，共有知識の操作とナラティブ経済学の関係について論じる．

Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Ui, 2022. "予想に働きかける政策をゲーム理論で考える," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:upd:utmpwp:043
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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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