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Trade Sustainability and Aid under Liberalization in Fragile Least Developed Countries

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Author Info
Santos-Paulino, Amelia U.

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Abstract

This study investigates the effect of trade liberalization on export growth, import growth, the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments in 17 least developed countries (LDCs) over the period 1970 to 2001. The paper also assesses the marginal relation between capital flows (e.g., aid flows) and import growth, and the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments. The higher import growth contrasts with the more modest export growth following trade liberalization and this has fundamental policy implications, especially for the balance of trade and the balance of payments. However, the financing and sustainability of the trade deficit in the reforming countries will depend not only on the outcome of trade liberalization, but also on other macroeconomic policies, developments in the real exchange rate and the inflows of foreign capital.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Papers with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper RP2007/26.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2007-26

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Related research
Keywords: trade liberalization; aid; balance of payments; dynamic panel data; least developed countries;

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  1. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mah, Jai S., 1999. "Import Demand, Liberalization, and Economic Development," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 497-503, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Melo, Oscar & Vogt, Michael G., 1984. "Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 351-358, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Technology and trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1279-1337 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 4. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 2. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mark McGillivray & Oliver Morrissey, 1998. "Aid and Trade Relationships in East Asia," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(7), pages 981-995, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dean, J.M. & Desai, S. & Riedel, J., 1994. "Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries since 1985," World Bank - Discussion Papers 267, World Bank.
  11. Jonathan Perraton, 2003. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: an examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 001-022, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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