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Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account in Small Island States

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Author Info
Santos-Paulino, Amelia U.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between terms of trade shocks and the current account in selected small islands developing states. The findings show that the terms of trade explain a significant proportion of the variation in the current account balances. Also, the current account balances reflect a J-curve type reaction to terms of trade innovations. Real output also reacts negatively to changes in the terms of trade.

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File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/rp2007/rp2007-20.pdf
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Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Papers with number UNU-WIDER Research Paper RP2007/20.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2007-20

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Related research
Keywords: terms of trade shocks; current account balance; panel data; vector autoregression; VAR;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-28, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harvey W. Armstrong & Robert Read, 1998. "Trade and Growth in Small States: The Impact of Global Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 563-585, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1998. "Investment, Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Working Papers 6652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1983. "Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 141-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
  13. Thirlwall, A. P. & Bergevin, J., 1985. "Trends, cycles and asymmetries in the terms of trade of primary commodities from developed and less developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(7), pages 805-817, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Paul Cashin & C. McDermott, 2002. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Five Industrial Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 219-235, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Paul Cashin & Norman Loayza, 1995. "Paradise Lost? Growth, Convergence and Migration in the South Pacific," IMF Working Papers 95/28, International Monetary Fund.
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