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Volatility clustering, leverage effects, and jumps dynamics in emerging Asian equity markets

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Author Info
Daal, Elton (University of New Orleans)
Naka, Atsuyuki (University of New Orleans)
Yu, Jung-Suk (University of New Orleans)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a mixed GARCH-Jump model that is tailored to the specific circumstances arising in emerging equity markets. Our model accommodates lagged currency returns as a local information variable in the autoregressive jump intensity function, incorporates jumps in the returns and volatility, and allows volatility to respond asymmetrically to both normal innovations and jump shocks. The model captures the distinguishing features of the Asian index returns and significantly improves the fit for those markets that were affected by the 1997 Asian crisis. Our proposed model yields higher levels of conditional kurtosis and superior forecasts of the expected arrival rate of jumps.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 2004-05.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 30 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uno:wpaper:2004-05

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Related research
Keywords: Jumps; Volatility; Leverage effects; Emerging markets; Asia; Equity markets;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
  4. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Quintos, Carmela & Fan, Zhenhong & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 68(3), pages 633-63, July.
  7. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-59.
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
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  9. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1999. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 211-239, June. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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