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Baumol revisitado: que futuro para o peso do sector da saúde em portugal?

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Tovar Jalles
  • Joao Cotter Salvado

Abstract

A “Doença de Baumol” refere que o baixo crescimento da produtividade no sector da saúde e a uniformidade dos salários da economia como um todo, fazem com que os custos neste sector, dito “estagnado”, sejam inevitavelmente crescentes o longo do tempo. Este facto coloca uma pressão real acrescida na sustentabilidade dos Orçamentos de Estado na generalidade dos países desenvolvidos, que é difícil de resolver e para o qual se torna urgente desenvolver métodos de análise e solução eficazes. Concretamente, partindo de hipóteses cruciais, a fracção de despesa pública em saúde em Portugal, poderá atingir 9,5% do PIB já em 2010 e 20,9% do mesmo em 2030. Dado que não se põe a hipótese de conter custos baixando a qualidade dos cuidados médicos proporcionados pelo sector público, os dois caminhos mais plausíveis no curto prazo, são aumentar a eficiência ou incrementar o financiamento e provisão pelo sector privado e outras instituições de cariz social.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Tovar Jalles & Joao Cotter Salvado, 2008. "Baumol revisitado: que futuro para o peso do sector da saúde em portugal?," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp533, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp533
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Doença de Baumol; sectores estagnados; produtividade do trabalho; custos da saúde;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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