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Baumol Revisitado: Que Futuro Para O Peso Do Sector Da Saúde Em Portugal?

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Author Info

  • Jalles, Joao Tovar
  • Salvado, Joao Cotter

Abstract

A “Doença de Baumol” refere que o baixo crescimento da produtividade no sector da saúde e a uniformidade dos salários da economia como um todo, fazem com que os custos neste sector, dito “estagnado”, sejam inevitavelmente crescentes o longo do tempo. Este facto coloca uma pressão real acrescida na sustentabilidade dos Orçamentos de Estado na generalidade dos países desenvolvidos, que é difícil de resolver e para o qual se torna urgente desenvolver métodos de análise e solução eficazes. Concretamente, partindo de hipóteses cruciais, a fracção de despesa pública em saúde em Portugal, poderá atingir 9,5% do PIB já em 2010 e 20,9% do mesmo em 2030. Dado que não se põe a hipótese de conter custos baixando a qualidade dos cuidados médicos proporcionados pelo sector público, os dois caminhos mais plausíveis no curto prazo, são aumentar a eficiência ou incrementar o financiamento e provisão pelo sector privado e outras instituições de cariz social. JEL codes: I10, I18, I19, H51, O33

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File URL: http://fesrvsd.fe.unl.pt/WPFEUNL/WP2008/wp533.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia in its series FEUNL Working Paper Series with number wp533.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp533

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