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Apertura, productividad y gasto agregado: un modelo de fundamentos del tipo de cambio real

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Author Info

  • Juan Benítez

    () (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración.)

  • Gabriela Mordecki

    () (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

Abstract

The Uruguayan economy has undergone over the past two decades an important growth process, together with a real appreciation of the domestic currency. This implied that the Real Exchange Rate (RER), calculated as TP/NTP, experienced important changes. From this phenomenon, this paper examines the evolution of the price competitiveness of the economy in light of the possible presence of "Balassa-Smuelson Effect" and a change in the economy's pattern of international integration, in a context of income growth and aggregate expenditure, through the methodology proposed by Johansen. Thus, we found a long-term relationship between the RER, the differential in labor productivity between the Uruguayan and U.S. economies, goods extra-regional exports and the economy's consumption. Furthermore, we found that the elasticities of RER to its long-term fundamentals lie in line with the theory and concludes that the equilibrium real exchange rate has fallen in the last two decades due to the movement of its fundamentals.

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File URL: http://www.iecon.ccee.edu.uy/download.php?len=es&id=328&nbre=dt-19-12.pdf&ti=application/aux&tc=Publicaciones
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia - IECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 12-19.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-19-12

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Keywords: Real exchange rate; Cointegration; Fundamentals;

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