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Implicaciones Macroeconómicas de Shocks de Oferta Persistentes: El caso de Chile

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Author Info

  • Felipe Morandé Lavín
  • Mauricio Tejada

Abstract

En los últimos años la economía chilena ha experimentado una multiplicidad de shocks de costos, los cuales han sido más persistentes de lo que se pensaba cuando se iniciaron y han llevado a la tasa de inflación a niveles muy superiores a la meta establecida por el Banco Central. En este contexto, el objetivo del artículo es analizar y cuantificar las implicaciones de shocks de oferta más persistentes sobre las principales variables macroeconómicas, esto es la tasa de inflación, la brecha del producto y la tasa de interés. Encontramos que shocks de oferta más persistentes llevan a que las principales variables macroeconómicas muestren una mayor persistencia y una mayor volatilidad, lo cual a su vez lleva a que el desequilibrio generado por un shock de este tipo demore más tiempo en desaparecer. Adicionalmente, un mayor grado de indexación generado por un posible desanclaje de expectativas puede exacerbar el impacto de la persistencia en los shocks de oferta. Finalmente, los efectos sobre la inflación se anulan si el Banco Central sólo pondera la tasa de inflación en su función de pérdida.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number wp290.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp290

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Web page: http://www.econ.uchile.cl/
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Related research

Keywords: Persistencia; shock de oferta; DSGE; Métodos Bayesianos;

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