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Monetary policy, Taylor´s Rule and Endogenous Fluctuations

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  • Luis Alberto Alonso González
  • Alfonso Palacio-Vera
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    Abstract

    The paper analyses the dynamic behaviour of an economy when the central bank (CB) implements an inflation targeting regime. For this purpose, a simple macroeconomic model is constructed and subjected to formal dynamic analysis. A first result is that, under certain conditions, the emergence of endogenous oscillations in the economy is a possible scenario. A second implication is that CBs face two main policy dilemmas: (i) the degree of gradualism adopted when setting the level of short-term interest rates and (ii) the desirability or otherwise of raising interest rates as soon as economic indicators suggest the emergence of inflationary pressures.

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    File URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/6690/1/9919.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales in its series Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales with number 99-19.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:ucm:doctra:99-19

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    1. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert Pollin, 1991. "Two Theories of Money Supply Endogeneity: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 13(3), pages 366-396, April.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    5. Benhabib, Jess & Miyao, Takahiro, 1981. "Some New Results on the Dynamics of the Generalized Tobin Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 589-96, October.
    6. James Tobin, 1993. "Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 45-65, Winter.
    7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    12. James K. Galbraith, 1997. "Time to Ditch the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-108, Winter.
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