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Rate Equations approach to simulate World population trends


Author Info

  • Gonzalo, Julio A.

    (Departamento de Física de Materiales. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

  • Muñoz, Félix

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

  • Santos,David J.

    (Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad San Pablo CEU)


According to UN statistical data and projections world population will begin to decrease by the middle of this century. This paper uses rate equations (fully analogous to those employed in condensed matter physics) to simulate the time evolution of world population, making use of UN population data in the time interval 1900-2010, and to extrapolate the evolution of world population into the near future. This approach has not been used in economics and population dynamics. The simulation predicts a population decline by mid-century. The economic consequences of population decline would be far reaching.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History) in its series Working Papers in Economic Theory with number 2011/07.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201107

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Keywords: rate equations; demographic transition; population trend simulation; world population decline.;

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