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Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts

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Author Info

  • John Clark

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Caroline Gibbons

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Susan Morrissey

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Joshua Pooley

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Emily Pye

    (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Aid program, Government of Australia)

  • Rhett Wilcox

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Luke Willard

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Estimates%20of%20uncertainty%20around%20Budget%20forecasts/Downloads/PDF/Working_Paper_2013_4v3.ashx
File Function: First version, 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its series Treasury Working Papers with number 2013-04.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision: Jan 2014
Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_4

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Keywords: Confidence intervals; forecast errors;

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