Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts
AbstractWe use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Treasury, Australian Government in its series Treasury Working Papers with number 2013-04.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision: Jan 2014
Confidence intervals; forecast errors;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2013-11-22 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-11-22 (Macroeconomics)
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