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Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View

Author

Listed:
  • Brett Palatiello

    (Ridgewood Analytica)

  • Philip Pilkington

    (Savenay Advisers)

Abstract

We test the neoclassical loanable funds model which postulates that, ceteris paribus, government borrowing increases the long-term rate of interest. The empirical literature exploring such a connection remains largely mixed. We clarify the conflicting results by deploying an ARDL model to decompose the relationship in the United States into long and short-run effects across multiple measures of the government deficit and long-term interest rate. We find a tendency for changes in the deficit to increase long-term interest rates in the short run but the effect is reversed in the long run. We argue that these results are consistent with John Maynard Keynes’ view of the long-term rate as being heavily influenced by monetary policy, central bank credibility and market convention.

Suggested Citation

  • Brett Palatiello & Philip Pilkington, 2022. "Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View," Working Papers Series inetwp183, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp183
    DOI: 10.36687/inetwp183
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp183
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficits; interest rates; crowding out; central bank; monetary policy; Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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