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Economic Base Multipliers Revisited

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Author Info
Derek Bond () (University of Ulster)
Michael J. Harrison () (Trinity College Dublin)
Edward J. O'Brien () (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

This paper takes a fresh look at the estimation of economic base multipliers. It uses recent developments in both nonstationary and nonlinear inference to consider issues surrounding the derivation of such multipliers for Northern Ireland. It highlights the problem of distinguishing between nonstationarity and nonlinearity in empirical work. The results of standard unit root and cointegration analysis call into question the adequacy of that framework for estimating employment multipliers. There is strong evidence of nonlinearity; and modelling using random field regression supports the findings of Harrison and Bond (1992) that there is substantial parameter instability or nonlinearity in the data.

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File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2007/TEP0807.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics in its series Trinity Economics Papers with number tep0807.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0807

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Postal: Trinity College, Dublin 2
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
R12 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

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