IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1932.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposing Uncertainty in Turkey into Its Determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Emine Meltem Bastan
  • Umit Ozlale

Abstract

This study aims at decomposing macroeconomic uncertainty into its components and constructs uncertainty indicators using the responses given to the Business Tendency Survey in Turkey with the method of Bachmann et al. (2010).The uncertainty indicators concentrate on questions on production capacity, total orders, expected fixed investment and general conditions. They are decomposed into their determinants using variables related to economic activity, exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices and both domestic and foreign price indices. The results show that variables related to economic activity, exchange rates, interest rates and consumer price indices have significant impact on uncertainty indicators, with the distinguished impact of non-linear variables noted for the exchange rate variables. In addition, the effects of the macroeconomic variables are more in line with expectations for production and total orders’ uncertainty compared to the investment and general conditions' uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Emine Meltem Bastan & Umit Ozlale, 2019. "Decomposing Uncertainty in Turkey into Its Determinants," Working Papers 1932, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1932
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2019/19-32
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic uncertainty; Bachmann method; Cross-sectional standard deviation; Business Tendency Survey; Random effects method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1932. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.