Ihracatta Yeni Pazarlarin Katkisi ve Pazar Sürekliligi

[TR] Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 2006-2021 yillari arasindaki ihracat gelismelerine yeni pazarlarin katkisi ve ihracatta pazar surekliligi firma, ulke ve urun seviyesindeki gumruk verileri kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Ýhracat pazari ulke-urun kesisim noktasinda tanimlanarak ihracattaki yillik artislar uc alt bilesene ayrilmaktadir: mevcut pazarlardaki gelismeler, yeni ihracat pazarlarindan elde edilen kazanclar, terk edilmis pazarlardan kaynaklanan kayiplar. Bu ayristirma sonucunda 2006 sonrasindaki ihracat artislarinda mevcut pazarlardaki ihracat artislarinin onemli payi oldugu saptanmaktadir. Buna ek olarak, yeni pazarlardan saglanan ihracat artisinin cikilan pazarlardan kaynakli kayiplari fazlasiyla telafi ettigi dikkat cekmektedir. 2006-2021 donemi bolgesel olarak incelendiginde Latin Amerika, Dogu Asya ve Guney Asya gibi bolgelerde yeni pazar (urun-ulke kesisimi) kaynakli onemli kazanimlar elde edildigi gorulmektedir. Ayrica, ihracatta pazar surekliliginin ozellikle Avrupa Birligi (AB) gibi geleneksel ihracat bolgelerinde yuksek oldugu goze carpmaktadir. Son olarak, ihracat yapilan pazarlarin (urun-ulke kesisimi) yuzde 80’inde bir sonraki yilda da ihracat gerceklestigi; ancak bu oranin ust uste iki yil ihracat yapilan pazarlarda daha yuksek, son iki yildan yalnizca birinde ihracat yapilan pazarlarda daha dusuk oldugu gozlenmektedir. [EN] This study examines the contribution of the new export markets to the overall export performance and the continuity of the export markets of Turkey between 2006-2021 using firm country-product level customs data. We define the export market at the country-product intersection and decompose the annual increases in exports into three subcomponents: developments in existing markets (intensive margin), gains from the new export markets, loss due to the abandoned markets (extensive margin). We find that increase in exports in existing markets has an important share in the overall export increase after 2006. In addition, the contribution of new export markets compensates for the losses stemming from the abandoned markets. The analysis of 2006-2021 by regions shows that significant gains have been achieved stemming from new markets (product-country intersection) in regions such as Latin America, East Asia and South Asia. Secondly, market continuity in exports is high in traditional export regions such as the European Union (EU). On average, 80 percent of the export markets (product-country intersection) continue to be exported in the next year; however, this ratio is higher in markets where exports are made for two years in a row, and lower in markets that were exported only once in a row.